Heavy losses in Russian armor may slow advances on some frontlines — ISW

Analysts cited a social media source tracking Russian military storage via satellite imagery. The source estimates that Russia’s reserves consist of 47% of pre-war tank stocks, 52% of infantry fighting vehicles, and 45% of armored personnel carriers.

The report also indicates that the Russian forces have already depleted their pre-invasion stockpile of T-90 tanks and most of their T-80 tanks. While older models like the T-72, T-64/62, and T-54/55 still remain in storage, many are likely unusable due to years of weather-related degradation.

ISW noted that while it cannot independently verify these quality assessments, older tanks could potentially be used for repairs or spare parts to support newer models. However, this dynamic cannot be determined solely from satellite images. Additionally, some armored vehicles may be stored in facilities that are not visible via satellite.

The availability of armored vehicles appears to vary across different frontlines. Russian forces conducted battalion-scale mechanized assaults in the Siversk direction (Donetsk Oblast) on Nov. 2 and Dec. 15 and a reinforced company-level assault in the Kupyansk area (Kharkiv Oblast) on Oct. 19. These areas have seen relatively lower levels of assault activity in recent months.

This contrasts with areas like Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, where higher-intensity assaults have resulted in greater losses of Russian armored vehicles. Despite these challenges, Russia’s command structure appears unwilling to withdraw units for rearmament and restoration, even at the risk of further slowing advances on high-priority frontlines.

Russia’s armored losses against Ukraine

On Dec. 14, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) collaborated with Tavria Tactical Group, HUR, SSO, and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in a multi-stage operation to destroy a Russian military train. The operation resulted in the destruction of a locomotive, 40 fuel tankers worth $4 million, and a key railway supply line for Russian forces.

On Dec. 16, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged 181 Russian military vehicles on Dec. 14, marking the highest single-day total of vehicle losses since the invasion began.

The Ukraine's Defense Forces have destroyed 9,624 Russian tanks and 19,915 armored combat vehicles as of Dec. 24, Ukraine’s General Staff reported.