Ukraine has already received 58 out of the 155 Leopard 1A5 tanks after Germany resolved several issues with spare parts supply and repaired the vehicles for military use.
Axe noted that that batch of 58 Leopard 1A5 tanks arrived in Ukraine in early September 2024. He added that during the two years since Russia's full-scale invasion, Germany had sent Ukraine only 45 Leopard 1 and 2 tanks.
"The delivery schedule matters," he wrote.
"The Leopard 1A5 is set to become the most numerous Western-made tank in Ukraine, surpassing 104 new Leopard 2s, 80 M-1 Abrams, and 14 British Challenger 2s."
According to him, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already integrated these tanks into its brigades.
The analyst highlighted that the Leopard 1A5 is the only Western tank available to equip Ukraine's ten newly formed "heavy" brigades, each requiring at least 31 tanks per battalion.
Despite being mass-produced in the 1980s and lighter than similar tanks from the UK and the US, the Leopard 1A5 is becoming better protected, Axe also stressed.
"Ukrainian forces have done everything possible to mitigate this tank’s greatest weakness — its thin armor — by adding reactive armor blocks and anti-drone nets. These additions seem to be effective. Of the 58 Leopard 1 tanks received by Ukrainians between July 2023 and early September, only six have been confirmed destroyed," the analyst concluded.
However, Ukrainian command is reluctant to send Leopard 1 tanks to the most dangerous frontlines.
"During recent localized counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian brigades instead used their few remaining M-1s and Leopard 2A6 tanks," the analyst wrote.
Axe also added that Ukrainian tank crews have positively assessed the qualities of the German tanks, despite their shortcomings. For instance, to reduce the risk of 105mm shells exploding in the turret after an enemy strike, Leopard 1 crews store only part of the 42 shells in the turret and keep the rest in the hull.
One crew member serving as a loader mentioned that due to this precaution, the tank has to "retreat to a safe spot for reloading, which takes time."
"However, the loader said he feels 'great' as part of the Leopard 1 crew. That’s good news because the number of units equipped with Leopard 1 tanks in Ukraine's armored forces will only continue to grow," Axe concluded.
Germany's military aid to Ukraine
- Nov. 19: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that the EU plans to utilize $1.4 billion from frozen Russian assets to procure military supplies for Ukraine. All materials are expected to be delivered by the end of 2024. Pistorius also revealed that Berlin will arrange additional supplies worth $2 billion for Ukraine at the beginning of 2025.
- Dec. 2: During a visit to Kyiv, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Ukraine will receive a sixth IRIS-T air defense system, launchers for Patriot missiles, and Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns in December. Scholz also confirmed that Germany has already provided Ukraine with five IRIS-T systems, three Patriot systems, and over 50 Gepard units.
- Dec. 23: Germany allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including IRIS-T air defense systems, Patriot systems, Leopard 1A5 tanks, and Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.