Between now and NATO: How Ukraine must secure its future

The recent Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) report, "Between Now and NATO," lays out a comprehensive strategy for Ukraine’s security in the absence of NATO membership. While full integration into the Alliance remains the only true long-term guarantee, waiting for it to happen is not an option. The West must act decisively now, ensuring that Ukraine does not become a frozen conflict or, worse, a Russian victory.

“Ukraine's NATO membership should not be a negotiation tactic, because we don't want Russia to have de facto veto power over who joins NATO,” said Catherine Sendak, Director of Transatlantic Defense and Security at CEPA during a press briefing on Feb.20. “Any country that meets its standards and meets its requirements should be open to a conversation about NATO membership.”

Beyond short-term aid: Building a structured security framework

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s survival has depended on immediate battlefield support—weapons, training, and intelligence sharing. But short-term fixes are not enough. Ukraine needs a long-term security framework that provides predictability, sustainability, and a clear path forward.

The CEPA report highlights the key security mechanisms that must be implemented before NATO membership:

• Bilateral Security Agreements (BSAs) – Ukraine has signed 28 security agreements, but they vary in scope and commitment. These agreements need long-term leadership and structured implementation to be effective.

• US Security Assistance Mechanisms – Existing tools like the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, Presidential Drawdown Authority, and foreign military financing should be expanded and institutionalized to ensure steady military aid regardless of shifting political dynamics.

• A Dedicated US Envoy for Ukraine Security – A high-profile representative with direct access to funding and decision-making could streamline support efforts and ensure clear priorities.

These steps would prevent Ukraine’s defense from being at the mercy of short-term political cycles in Washington, Brussels, and other allied capitals.

"First, this must give Ukraine confidence that it is truly secure. Second, it must deter Moscow” said William Monahan, Senior Fellow at CEPA. “That means making it clear to Putin and to the Kremlin that once a ceasefire is in place, any violation of that ceasefire will put him at war, not just with Ukraine, but at war with Europe.”

Lessons from past conflicts

Security assistance is not a one-size-fits-all solution. The CEPA report examines case studies from Afghanistan, Israel, Taiwan, Colombia, and Lebanon, drawing key lessons:

• Clear objectives – Security aid must be tied to defined, achievable goals to avoid waste and inefficiency.
• Strong partner buy-in – Ukraine must take the lead in shaping its own defense strategy.
• Accountability mechanisms – Ensuring military aid is effectively used and aligned with strategic objectives.

Past failures in security cooperation have stemmed from poor communication, mismatched objectives, and a lack of long-term planning. Ukraine and its partners cannot afford to repeat these mistakes.

“We need to have a very clear understanding of what our strategic goals are in for these negotiations and what we see as key elements of a longer term peace arrangement,” said Monahan.  “And in that sense, we may be looking to Europe to play a much larger role than it has in the past.”

Security is more than just weapons

Military aid is essential, but Ukraine’s survival depends on more than just tanks and missiles. The CEPA report divides Ukraine’s needs into two critical categories:

1. Quantifiable needs – Military hardware, training, logistics, and financial support.
2. Non-Quantifiable needs – Political will, strategic clarity, ideological unity, and anti-corruption measures to maintain Western trust and support.

Ukraine has also begun strengthening its own defense industry, ensuring greater self-sufficiency in weapons production.

"Ukraine also has developed a strategy in terms of domestic defense production, and it's also been increasing its co-production agreements with Western manufacturers, such as Germany's Rheinmetall,” said Ilya Timtchenko, Co-Author of "Between Now and NATO". “The Ukrainian government is also funding a lot of its military R&D and increasing spending on domestically produced weapons, as well as procurement.”

This push for self-reliance is critical but must be paired with consistent Western support.

The West cannot afford complacency

There is one major risk identified in CEPA’s analysis: Ukraine fatigue.

Russia is betting that Western focus will shift elsewhere, that economic pressures and election cycles will erode political will in Washington and Europe. Moscow is actively pushing disinformation to widen divisions and undermine public support for Ukraine.

"Europe must think long and move fast,” warned Elina Beketova, Democracy Fellow at CEPA. “Only deep foundational obligations to Ukraine can ensure that Ukraine and Europe itself are defended against further or renewed aggression.”

The political and economic cost of maintaining Ukraine’s security pales in comparison to the price of a Russian victory.

The CEPA report is more than a policy document—it is a warning.

•  If Ukraine is left waiting for NATO membership without a structured security framework, it risks becoming another frozen conflict.
• If Western support loses focus, Russia will exploit the opportunity to regroup and strike again.
• If Ukraine is not integrated into a long-term security plan, the war could spread beyond Ukraine’s borders.

The economic resources are there. The political framework exists. But success depends on bold, decisive action.

"We've also seen the European Commission move to unfreeze some of the unspent COVID relief funds—over 90 billion euros,” noted Monahan. “We've already seen a 6 billion Euro [6.3 billion USD] commitment in just the last couple of days." 

The solution is clear: Ukraine needs a structured, long-term commitment that ensures security now, rather than waiting for an uncertain future. The tools exist. The only question is whether the political will remains strong enough.

Victory for Ukraine is within reach, but decisive action is needed today. Delay only plays into Russia’s hands. If the West fails to act, it will give Moscow its greatest weapon—time.