Ukraine's drone swarms systematically dismantle Russian frontline logistics — ISW

In March 2026, Russian "milbloggers" noticed that the Ukrainian military began to use FPV drones more frequently across all sectors of the front.

One of them stated that the Armed Forces began using drones on new frequencies to bypass Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems and extend their strike range by tens of kilometers.

Some Russian "milbloggers" say that Ukrainian forces have increased the number of drone operators in the Kostyantynivka direction. According to them, the drones are delivering precise strikes on transport on the highways northeast of occupied Donetsk, complicating Russian logistics.

As ISW noted, a geolocated video published in March 2026 demonstrated how Ukrainian defenders attack Russian trucks and vehicles moving along highways north and northeast of Donetsk.

Analysts emphasized that the Defense Forces are delivering similar precise strikes in the south of Ukraine as well.

ISW stressed that the increase in drone operations could weaken Russia's campaign of aerial interdiction of combat operations, which allowed the Russian army to achieve certain tactical successes in mid-to-late 2025.

This Russian campaign involves the use of air power to strike targets in the operational or frontline rear (within 100-120 kilometers) in order to influence combat operations in the near term, the report explained.

AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that in February 2026, the use of enemy FPV drones decreased by 18%, likely following Ukrainian strikes on Russian UAV storage facilities.

One of the Russian "milbloggers" hinted that Russian strikes on the positions of Ukrainian drone operators and warehouses no longer yield the desired effect, judging by the large number of Ukrainian drones in the sky.

Russia's spring offensive

Feb. 27 ISW report wrote that Russian troops have likely begun artillery and drone preparation for a spring-summer 2026 offensive against the cities of the so-called fortress belt of Donetsk Oblast. This operation could last for years and cost the Kremlin heavy losses and resources.

On Feb. 18, The New York Times, citing military and Western intelligence, reported that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is ready to continue the war against Ukraine for another two years to gain full control over the Donbas.

On Feb. 24, Presidential Office deputy head Pavlo Palisa stated that the Russians want to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast by late March or early April.

On March 4, the 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces reported that Russian occupation forces plan to intensify their offensive in early spring and have concentrated their main efforts on advancing toward Hryshyne, northwest of Pokrovsk.