Russia's 'primitive economy' and public apathy aid Putin — former Lithuanian PM

Šimonytė, now a member of the Lithuanian Seimas, argued that the "stability" touted by the Kremlin is largely a result of the country's lack of integration into complex global supply chains. Because the economy remains basic — relying primarily on raw material exports like oil — its exclusion from high-tech networks has not been as immediately crippling as it would be for a modern industrial power.

"It is very primitive," she explained.

"If a country's economy is primitive enough, its exclusion from global supply chains doesn't become critically painful because it never played a significant role in them."

While she acknowledged that Russia lost significant revenue by halting gas sales to Europe, she noted they continue to sell oil, albeit at heavily discounted prices.

The "Belgorod factor" and public silence

Šimonytė pointed to the Russian public’s endurance of poor living conditions as a key pillar of Putin’s resilience. She cited the popular Russian sentiment, "We never lived well, so why start now?" as a primary reason why worsening economic conditions fail to spark provincial unrest.

This apathy extends to the Kremlin's treatment of its own border oblasts. Šimonytė observed that residents in areas like Belgorod, who face frequent strikes due to the war, appear abandoned by their leadership.

"Putin doesn't talk much about Belgorod... as if they don't exist," she said.

"The question is how long people can actually carry this on their shoulders. I assume quite a long time."

Despite this relative stability, Šimonytė warned that Russia is facing long-term strain. Oil revenues are declining due to sanctions, inflation is rising, and the "magic" of 2022 — when high defense sector wages temporarily boosted the economy — has faded.

She warned that Putin is now seeking a "breathing space" to regroup.

"He would like to have a break to convince the U.S. and Europe to lift sanctions, reorganize the economy, and then attack again," Šimonytė cautioned.

"And that is exactly what cannot be allowed to happen. Because if it does, we are all doomed."