ISW analysis

Russia redeploys elite airborne units south after Ukraine counteroffensive — ISW

Russia has redeployed elite airborne and naval infantry units from the Pokrovsk sector and the area around Dobropillia to southern Ukraine in response to recent Ukrainian battlefield gains in Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War reported on March 7.

8 March, 01:40 PM

Russia intensifies Shahed strikes on Ukrainian railways to paralyze frontline logistics

Russian forces are intensifying Shahed drone strikes on Ukrainian railways as part of a broader battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on March 4.

5 March, 09:35 AM

Russian military goals in Ukraine ignore actual combat capabilities - ISW

Russian military command "continues to operate in an alternative reality" by setting unrealistic deadlines for Ukrainian territories seizure, contradicting Russia's actual combat capabilities, the Institute for the Study of War wrote on March 3.

4 March, 10:56 AM

U.S. and Israel target Iran’s leadership, security forces in bid to topple regime — ISW

The first days of the U.S.-Israel operation against Iran have centered on a campaign to “decapitate” the regime and strike its internal security apparatus — actions that could weaken Tehran’s ability to suppress unrest and govern effectively, the Institute for the Study of War said in a report covering the first two days of the campaign on Feb. 28 — March 1.

2 March, 12:30 PM

ISW: Russia used ceasefire pause to prep massive Feb. 3 missile and drone assault

Russia’s large-scale missile and drone assault on Ukraine early on Feb. 3 shows Moscow was never serious about using a temporary halt in attacks on energy infrastructure to de-escalate the war or pursue meaningful peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Jan. 3 report.

4 February, 11:23 AM

Russian 'battlefield gains' in Kupyansk exist only on paper — ISW

Russia’s claim of having seized Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi exists largely on paper, not on the ground, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Jan. 27.

28 January, 01:04 PM

Pushing Ukraine to give up Donbas is strategic error — ISW

Pressuring Ukraine to give up parts of Donetsk Oblast in exchange for U.S. security guarantees would be a strategic mistake, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Jan. 27.

28 January, 12:12 PM

Russia uses nuclear threats to push U.S. into Ukraine concessions, ISW warns

Russia has resumed nuclear threats to pressure the United States into making concessions on Ukraine in exchange for restoring U.S.–Russia relations, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Jan. 26 report.

27 January, 10:36 AM

Putin wants to use Trump’s Peace Council to reclaim Russian frozen assets - ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is attempting to use U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly established Peace Council to gain Trump’s favor and negotiate the return of frozen assets, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Jan. 22.

23 January, 10:47 AM

Ukraine’s robotic kill zone wipes out 88% of Russian forces near Kupyansk, ISW reports

A Ukrainian kill zone near Kupyansk is preventing Russian forces from using vehicles up to 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the front line and restricting infantry movement within a kilometer, the Institute for the Study of War reported on Jan. 20, calling the tactic potentially game-changing if scaled across the front.

21 January, 11:45 AM

Kremlin rolls out Medvedchuk to signal rejection of peace with Ukraine — ISW

The Kremlin is using Viktor Medvedchuk, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, to publicly dismiss the prospect of peace with Ukraine and prepare Russian audiences for a prolonged war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Jan. 18 analysis.

19 January, 11:22 AM

Russia fakes Kupyansk ‘victory’ to influence U.S. stance on peace talks — ISW

Russia’s top military officials are spreading false claims about seizing the city of Kupyansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast to create an “alternative reality” on the battlefield and pressure the United States into backing peace talks on Moscow’s terms, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Jan. 16 assessment.

17 January, 10:22 AM

Russia expands year-round conscription, moves to call up more reservists — ISW analysis

Russia is stepping up forced mobilization of reservists to make up for its disproportionately high losses in Ukraine relative to territorial gains, according to a Dec. 30 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

31 December 2025, 11:29 AM

ISW: Russia must drop demands that clash with U.S.–Ukraine peace plan

The Kremlin will have to compromise on demands that contradict the 20-point peace plan proposed by the United States and Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Dec. 24 report.

25 December 2025, 05:00 PM

Ukrainian gains near Kupyansk debunk Kremlin narrative of ‘inevitable victory’ — ISW

Ukrainian advances in and around Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast demonstrate that Ukraine’s Armed Forces remain capable of mounting successful counterattacks and achieving tactically significant gains, especially when Russian forces are overstretched, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Dec. 12 assessment.

13 December 2025, 10:48 AM

ISW: Kremlin rejects security guarantees, free elections, and Ukraine’s energy truce plan

Russia continues to signal it has no interest in easing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, agreeing to peace terms that include real security guarantees, or allowing free elections unless it can ensure a pro-Russian outcome, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their Dec. 10 report.

11 December 2025, 10:32 AM

ISW: Putin doubles down on 2022 invasion goals, rejects U.S. peace proposal

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his commitment to the original goals of his 2021–2022 invasion of Ukraine and showed no interest in compromise during a recent interview with Indian media, according to a new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published on Dec. 4.

5 December 2025, 11:44 AM

ISW: Kremlin fakes Ukraine defeat to push West into peace on Russia’s terms

Russian state-run propaganda outlets are spreading false claims of an imminent collapse along Ukraine’s front line, citing recent remarks by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, according to the Institute for the Study of War’s latest report, published on Nov. 29.

30 November 2025, 01:00 PM

Russia needs years — not months — to seize Donetsk Oblast — ISW

Russia’s invasion force could fully capture Donetsk Oblast by August 2027 — but only if it continues advancing without interruption, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Nov. 26.

27 November 2025, 09:30 AM

Moscow rejects every version of the U.S.-backed peace plan, rails against EU involvement

Russian officials and ultranationalist camp effectively reject both the initial and revised drafts of the U.S.-backed peace plan, trying to shift responsibility onto Europe, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Nov. 25.

25 November 2025, 02:27 PM

ISW analysis

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