ISW analysis

Ratio of wounded to killed shows Russia taking ‘abnormally high’ battlefield losses in 2025 — ISW analysis

Russian forces are suffering an “abnormally high” killed-to-wounded ratio on the battlefield in Ukraine this year — far above wartime norms — analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said in their Oct. 7 report.

8 October 2025, 10:06 AM

Russia enters new phase of prep for future war with NATO — ISW analysis

Russia appears to be accelerating the initial stage of its campaign to prepare for a potential future war with NATO and has shifted to laying the information and psychological groundwork for such a conflict, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said in their Oct. 6 report.

7 October 2025, 10:22 AM

Putin’s fresh threats from Valdai forum: ISW debunks Russian dictator’s absurd claims and war exaggerations

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin used the Valdai Discussion Club as a platform to issue new threats against Europe and the United States, aimed at deterring Western responses to Russian aggression and weakening support for Ukraine, according to an Oct. 2 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

3 October 2025, 10:10 AM

Russia, Belarus eye provocation against Poland under false flag — ISW

Russia and Belarus may be preparing sabotage operations in Poland aimed at critical infrastructure, which they plan to blame on Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Sept. 30.

1 October 2025, 08:55 AM

Russia cuts soldiers’ benefits while boosting propaganda in 2026 - ISW

Russia plans to cut military spending and reduce payments to soldiers’ families in 2026, while sharply increasing funding for state propaganda, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Sept. 29.

30 September 2025, 09:45 AM

Gen. Lapin ousted as Putin hunts scapegoats for failed defense of Kursk — ISW

The dismissal of Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin, the former commander of Russia’s Center and North groupings, marked a “notable inflection” in the policy of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, according to a Sept. 21 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

22 September 2025, 10:32 AM

Ukraine makes gains in Sumy as Russia escalates near Kupyansk and Kherson, ISW says

Russian forces continue their offensive near Kupyansk and are stepping up efforts on the Pokrovsk front, while Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in northern parts of Sumy Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a new report.

21 September 2025, 10:16 AM

Putin may have organized or approved Bloomberg ‘leak’ on intensified strikes after Trump meeting — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may have allowed Kremlin sources to provide Bloomberg with information about plans to continue military escalation and strike Ukraine’s energy and other infrastructure, according to the Sept. 20 report by the Institute for the Study of War.

21 September 2025, 09:27 AM

Russian MiG-31 incursion into Estonia was a test of NATO’s response for future conflicts – ISW

Russia’s latest airspace violation over Estonia on Sept. 19 appears to be an attempt by Moscow to test NATO’s reaction and capabilities in order to apply those insights in possible future conflicts with the Alliance, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

20 September 2025, 02:18 PM

Moscow’s war aims unchanged. Kremlin pushes Trump to restore ties with Russia without peace in Ukraine — ISW

The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate Donald Trump’s administration into normalizing U.S.-Russia relations without ending the war in Ukraine, contrary to Trump’s stated expectation that ties with Moscow would be handled only after a peace deal, the Institute for the Study of War reported on Sept. 18.

19 September 2025, 10:17 AM

Medvedev, Iskanders, and war games: How Russia’s Zapad-2025 drills and fresh Kremlin threats push NATO closer to conflict — ISW

Russia is using its Zapad-2025 military exercises to rehearse not only hybrid but direct military provocations against neighboring NATO states, while ramping up threats following the recent drone incursion into Poland, according to a Sept. 15 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

16 September 2025, 10:51 AM

Medvedev targets Finland with threats and Nazi rhetoric, echoing Kremlin’s Ukraine war propaganda — ISW analysis

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev issued direct threats against Finland in a new op-ed, using language and narratives that closely mirror the false justifications the Kremlin used to launch its war against Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Sept. 8 report.

9 September 2025, 10:19 AM

Ukraine’s refinery strikes worsening Russia’s fuel crisis and inflation outlook – ISW

Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries inside Russia have exacerbated the country’s gasoline shortage, likely accelerating inflation and worsening an already fragile economic outlook, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an Aug. 28 report.

29 August 2025, 02:23 PM

Lavrov openly rejects U.S. peace proposals in NBC interview — ISW analysis

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used an English-language interview with NBC News to again reject U.S.-backed peace proposals for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in an Aug. 24 report analyzing his latest inflammatory remarks.

25 August 2025, 10:46 AM

‘Avoiding blame for failed talks’: Kremlin signals Putin has no plans to meet Zelenskyy — ISW analysis

The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has no intention of holding a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy anytime soon, according to an Aug. 22 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

23 August 2025, 11:19 AM

Kremlin pushes for control over Ukraine’s laws, language, and Orthodox Church activity – ISW

Russia continues to deny Ukraine’s sovereignty by unjustifiably insisting on dictating the country’s internal affairs, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Aug. 17 assessment of the Kremlin’s current demands in talks with the United States.

18 August 2025, 10:40 AM

Seizing all of Donetsk Oblast would take years, not weeks — ISW

Seizing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast is likely to be a difficult, years-long campaign for Russian forces rather than the swift advance Russian dictator Vladimir Putin portrays. Moscow’s troops remain unable to achieve operationally significant gains or move faster than the pace of infantry, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an Aug. 16 assessment.

17 August 2025, 10:13 AM

Putin maintains war aims, denies Ukraine’s sovereignty after Alaska summit — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not soften his military objectives or show any willingness to compromise on Ukraine during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska, according to an Aug. 15 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

16 August 2025, 10:35 AM

Russia sets narrative to reject Alaska peace deal before Trump-Putin meeting — ISW

In the run-up to Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Russian officials and state media are laying the groundwork to justify rejecting any future peace deal to end the war. Trump, meanwhile, has signaled that the U.S. will push in those talks to return some of Ukraine’s economically and strategically significant territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Aug. 11 report.

12 August 2025, 12:22 PM

Putin rules out peace deal that doesn’t match war goals — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has deliberately created a situation in which any peace deal that falls short of his original war objectives would not appear to be a victory for the Russian people or military, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an Aug. 5 report.

6 August 2025, 10:32 AM

ISW analysis

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