ISW analysis

Ukraine makes gains in Sumy as Russia escalates near Kupyansk and Kherson, ISW says

Russian forces continue their offensive near Kupyansk and are stepping up efforts on the Pokrovsk front, while Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in northern parts of Sumy Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a new report.

21 September 2025, 10:16 AM

Putin may have organized or approved Bloomberg ‘leak’ on intensified strikes after Trump meeting — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may have allowed Kremlin sources to provide Bloomberg with information about plans to continue military escalation and strike Ukraine’s energy and other infrastructure, according to the Sept. 20 report by the Institute for the Study of War.

21 September 2025, 09:27 AM

Russian MiG-31 incursion into Estonia was a test of NATO’s response for future conflicts – ISW

Russia’s latest airspace violation over Estonia on Sept. 19 appears to be an attempt by Moscow to test NATO’s reaction and capabilities in order to apply those insights in possible future conflicts with the Alliance, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

20 September 2025, 02:18 PM

Moscow’s war aims unchanged. Kremlin pushes Trump to restore ties with Russia without peace in Ukraine — ISW

The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate Donald Trump’s administration into normalizing U.S.-Russia relations without ending the war in Ukraine, contrary to Trump’s stated expectation that ties with Moscow would be handled only after a peace deal, the Institute for the Study of War reported on Sept. 18.

19 September 2025, 10:17 AM

Medvedev, Iskanders, and war games: How Russia’s Zapad-2025 drills and fresh Kremlin threats push NATO closer to conflict — ISW

Russia is using its Zapad-2025 military exercises to rehearse not only hybrid but direct military provocations against neighboring NATO states, while ramping up threats following the recent drone incursion into Poland, according to a Sept. 15 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

16 September 2025, 10:51 AM

Medvedev targets Finland with threats and Nazi rhetoric, echoing Kremlin’s Ukraine war propaganda — ISW analysis

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev issued direct threats against Finland in a new op-ed, using language and narratives that closely mirror the false justifications the Kremlin used to launch its war against Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Sept. 8 report.

9 September 2025, 10:19 AM

Ukraine’s refinery strikes worsening Russia’s fuel crisis and inflation outlook – ISW

Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries inside Russia have exacerbated the country’s gasoline shortage, likely accelerating inflation and worsening an already fragile economic outlook, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an Aug. 28 report.

29 August 2025, 02:23 PM

Lavrov openly rejects U.S. peace proposals in NBC interview — ISW analysis

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used an English-language interview with NBC News to again reject U.S.-backed peace proposals for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in an Aug. 24 report analyzing his latest inflammatory remarks.

25 August 2025, 10:46 AM

‘Avoiding blame for failed talks’: Kremlin signals Putin has no plans to meet Zelenskyy — ISW analysis

The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has no intention of holding a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy anytime soon, according to an Aug. 22 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

23 August 2025, 11:19 AM

Kremlin pushes for control over Ukraine’s laws, language, and Orthodox Church activity – ISW

Russia continues to deny Ukraine’s sovereignty by unjustifiably insisting on dictating the country’s internal affairs, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Aug. 17 assessment of the Kremlin’s current demands in talks with the United States.

18 August 2025, 10:40 AM

Seizing all of Donetsk Oblast would take years, not weeks — ISW

Seizing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast is likely to be a difficult, years-long campaign for Russian forces rather than the swift advance Russian dictator Vladimir Putin portrays. Moscow’s troops remain unable to achieve operationally significant gains or move faster than the pace of infantry, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an Aug. 16 assessment.

17 August 2025, 10:13 AM

Putin maintains war aims, denies Ukraine’s sovereignty after Alaska summit — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not soften his military objectives or show any willingness to compromise on Ukraine during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska, according to an Aug. 15 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

16 August 2025, 10:35 AM

Russia sets narrative to reject Alaska peace deal before Trump-Putin meeting — ISW

In the run-up to Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Russian officials and state media are laying the groundwork to justify rejecting any future peace deal to end the war. Trump, meanwhile, has signaled that the U.S. will push in those talks to return some of Ukraine’s economically and strategically significant territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Aug. 11 report.

12 August 2025, 12:22 PM

Putin rules out peace deal that doesn’t match war goals — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has deliberately created a situation in which any peace deal that falls short of his original war objectives would not appear to be a victory for the Russian people or military, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an Aug. 5 report.

6 August 2025, 10:32 AM

Russia demands Ukraine’s surrender, shows no interest in compromise — ISW

Russia continues to demand Ukraine’s full surrender and has shown no interest in compromising to end the war, according to an Aug. 2 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

3 August 2025, 10:12 AM

Ukrainian forces advance near Pokrovsk as Russia changes assault tactics — ISW

Ukrainian troops advanced near Pokrovsk as Russian forces pressed on with assaults while shifting their battlefield tactics, the Institute for the Study of War reported in its July 30 update.

31 July 2025, 10:17 AM

Trump’s ultimatum to the Kremlin: ISW doubts Putin will agree to peace without battlefield pressure

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is unlikely to make any concessions toward ending the war against Ukraine unless Ukrainian forces achieve significant victories on the battlefield, according to a July 28 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

29 July 2025, 10:31 AM

Russia distorts Ukraine protests, spins backlash to NABU law as antiwar unrest — ISW

Kremlin officials and pro-Russian propagandists are attempting to weaponize the protests in Ukraine that erupted after the passage of Law No. 12414 on NABU and SAPO, using them to undermine Ukraine’s legitimacy and discourage Western support, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in teir July 23 report.

24 July 2025, 10:04 AM

Ukraine, Russia to hold new round of talks in Istanbul, but Kremlin undermines effort — ISW

Ukraine and Russia are scheduled to hold a third round of bilateral negotiations in Istanbul on July 23, but Kremlin officials are already undermining the talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in their July 22 report.

23 July 2025, 10:27 AM

Trump eyeing Ukraine aid, Russia sanctions to force peace talks

U.S. President Donald Trump believes that combining economic instruments with Western military support for Ukraine will enable it to intensify pressure on Russia on the battlefield, compelling Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to negotiate, according to a new report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released on July 14.

15 July 2025, 11:45 AM

ISW analysis

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