ISW analysis

Ukraine, Russia to hold new round of talks in Istanbul, but Kremlin undermines effort — ISW

Ukraine and Russia are scheduled to hold a third round of bilateral negotiations in Istanbul on July 23, but Kremlin officials are already undermining the talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in their July 22 report.

23 July 2025, 10:27 AM

Trump eyeing Ukraine aid, Russia sanctions to force peace talks

U.S. President Donald Trump believes that combining economic instruments with Western military support for Ukraine will enable it to intensify pressure on Russia on the battlefield, compelling Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to negotiate, according to a new report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released on July 14.

15 July 2025, 11:45 AM

Russian push toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will deepen military strain — ISW

Russian forces are unlikely to seize the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025, and any advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast would only exacerbate existing weaknesses in Russia’s military, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its July 11 assessment.

12 July 2025, 12:45 PM

Russia aims to encircle Pokrovsk, bypass Ukrainian defenses — ISW

In the coming months, Russian forces will likely try to encircle the city of Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine’s fortified defense line from the west in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War’s July 5 assessment.

6 July 2025, 10:22 AM

Russia falsely claims full control of Luhansk Oblast — ISW

The Kremlin "authorities" have claimed that Russian forces have fully seized all of Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast, but even pro-Russian milbloggers have disputed the claim, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on July 1.

2 July 2025, 09:40 AM

Russian rhetoric exposes goal to erase Ukrainian sovereignty entirely — ISW

High-ranking Kremlin officials, including Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, continue to express broader territorial ambitions in Ukraine, going far beyond Crimea and the four oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on June 30.

1 July 2025, 10:09 AM

Zelenskyy warns Trump not to fall for Russia’s Iran-Israel ploy

Russia lacks the resources to meaningfully support Iran but will try to create the illusion of doing so to sway U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a June 20 media briefing, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

22 June 2025, 10:12 AM

Putin pushes false unity narrative to justify Ukraine invasion

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made a series of false claims about Ukraine during his June 20 address at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank says these statements reflect a deliberate Kremlin disinformation campaign.

21 June 2025, 10:55 AM

Kremlin threats expose Putin’s ‘victory theory’— ISW analysis

The West has failed to persuade Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to reconsider his war "victory theory" as he still believes that Russia can win a war of attrition, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on June 19.

20 June 2025, 11:17 AM

Rising oil prices from Iran attack could sustain Russia’s Ukraine war

Israel’s June 13 strikes on Iran could boost Russia’s ability to fund its prolonged war against Ukraine due to rising oil prices, which surged over 5% to $74.47 per barrel, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War reported on June 13.

14 June 2025, 03:05 PM

U.S. aid reduction could embolden Putin’s victory plan — ISW

Planned U.S. cuts to military aid for Ukraine in 2026 will not bring lasting peace or force Vladimir Putin to abandon his "theory of victory," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said on June 12.

12 June 2025, 12:15 PM

Preparing a new generation for years of war: What Putin’s latest Security Council meeting signals — ISW analysis

On June 10, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin convened a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, focusing heavily on so-called “military-patriotic” programs for youth and government initiatives aimed at promoting Russian nationalism, according to a new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

11 June 2025, 10:55 AM

Putin bets Ukraine tires first, but Western arms could tip the balance – ISW

The Kremlin is betting that Ukraine will tire of the war before Russia does, but Western pressure could shift that calculus, according to a June 7 report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

8 June 2025, 10:03 AM

Russia unlikely to seize half of Ukraine by 2026 if Western aid continues — ISW

Russia is unlikely to achieve its goal of occupying half of Ukraine by the end of 2026, given the current state of its offensive capabilities and continued Western military aid to Kyiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its June 6 assessment.

7 June 2025, 02:20 PM

Russian army suffers massive losses as Kremlin feigns interest in peace talks — ISW

The Kremlin remains uninterested in good-faith peace negotiations with Ukraine, even as Russian forces continue to suffer disproportionately high battlefield losses, according to a June 5 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

6 June 2025, 02:29 PM

How Ukraine’s Operation Cobweb stunned Russian propagandists and war bloggers — ISW

Despite threats from Russian propagandists to retaliate with nuclear weapons over Ukraine’s Operation Cobweb, a nuclear response is unlikely, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said in a June 1 report.

2 June 2025, 10:27 AM

Amid talk of ‘peace talks,’ Putin prepares for a long war with Ukraine and NATO — ISW outlines the signs

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 granting the government authority to seize control of defense businesses that fail to meet state wartime contracts, a move that signals preparations for a long war with NATO, according to a May 31 report by the Institute for the Study of War.

1 June 2025, 12:47 PM

Kremlin hardens stance ahead of Istanbul talks, drags out peace process while seizing on U.S. concessions — ISW

The Kremlin is hardening its stance ahead of a possible new round of peace talks with Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul on June 2, a meeting unlikely to produce meaningful results as Russia appears intent on stalling negotiations, the Institute for the Study of War reported on May 30.

31 May 2025, 10:23 AM

Russian forces advance near Vovchansk and Toretsk, Ukraine denies confirmation

Russian forces made advances in two sectors of the front on May 25, according to the open-source intelligence platform DeepState, which reported the movements on May 26.

26 May 2025, 02:27 PM

Putin's visit to Kursk signals renewed ambitions for Sumy despite lack of capability

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Kursk Oblast was intended to lay the groundwork for renewed efforts to capture the city of Sumy and illegally annex Sumy Oblast, analysts from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their May 21 report.

22 May 2025, 12:15 PM

ISW analysis

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