ISW analysis

Medvedev revives Kremlin’s surrender demands, dismisses Ukraine’s sovereignty

Senior Russian officials are still denying Ukraine’s sovereignty and the legitimacy of its president, government, and Constitution, the Institute for the Study of War said in a May 20 report, despite dictator Vladimir Putin’s recent attempts to signal interest in peace negotiations to end the war.

21 May 2025, 10:18 AM

ISW: Putin stalls talks, demands Ukraine’s surrender, prepares for long war

Russia continues to threaten escalation and hint at potential nuclear strikes as the Kremlin gears up for a prolonged war with no intention of making concessions, according to a May 17 report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

18 May 2025, 10:29 AM

Russians simulate talks, push Ukraine to capitulate on Kremlin’s 2022 terms — ISW

Russian officials are openly calling for renewed peace talks with Ukraine based on the so-called “Istanbul protocols” from early 2022 — a framework amounting to a demand for Ukraine’s capitulation, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War on May 14.

15 May 2025, 11:03 AM

Russia likely shifting focus to Toretsk as offensive stalls near Pokrovsk

Russian forces have shifted units from the Kurakhove and Zaporizhzhya directions to the Toretsk axis, signaling a possible change in strategic priorities, while pro-Kremlin bloggers report fresh Ukrainian attacks near Tyotkino in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment published on May 5.

6 May 2025, 10:57 AM

Russia’s 2025 advance slows, but losses remain steep — ISW

Russia’s offensive on the front line has slowed over the first four months of 2025, even as the scale of its battlefield losses remains high. On average, Russia is losing 99 soldiers—killed or wounded—for every kilometer of Ukrainian territory it captures, according to a May 2 update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

3 May 2025, 10:35 AM

ISW flags conflicting messages from US, Ukraine and Russia, plus Kremlin’s manipulative ceasefire demands

The statements from Ukraine, the United States and Russia following negotiations in Saudi Arabia differ significantly, while vague language and additional demands from the Kremlin leave key issues unresolved — including how and when a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea would take effect — according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War published on March 25.

26 March 2025, 10:25 AM

Kremlin twists peace talks to sabotage ceasefire efforts — ISW

Russia is playing a dangerous game with ongoing ceasefire talks, using them as a weapon while trying to sabotage any potential agreements, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on March 21.

22 March 2025, 11:49 AM

Putin’s land grab ambitions linger despite ceasefire talks — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin isn’t likely to back down from his plans to seize more Ukrainian land, even if a ceasefire is reached, according to the March 16 report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

17 March 2025, 07:49 PM

Putin’s ceasefire demands reveal true intentions: not peace, but another offensive - ISW

Vladimir Putin's ceasefire counter-demands will not only disarm Ukraine before any peace negotiations but could also allow Russia to resume hostilities under highly favorable conditions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on March 13.

14 March 2025, 10:05 AM

US intelligence freeze leaves Ukraine exposed as Russia gains battlefield edge

The United States’ recent decision to halt intelligence sharing with Ukraine is raising serious concerns about its impact on the battlefield and the safety of civilians, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on March 8.

9 March 2025, 10:10 AM

Kremlin’s new strategy: Russia eyes Patriot systems as US aid freeze leaves Ukraine vulnerable

Russia may exploit the suspension of US military aid by intensifying missile and Shahed drone strikes while targeting Ukraine’s Patriot systems, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on March 7.

8 March 2025, 10:32 AM

U.S. intelligence cutoff leaves Ukraine vulnerable to Russian airstrikes - ISW

The suspension of intelligence sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine could significantly strengthen Russian aviation and affect the course of military operations, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on March 5.

6 March 2025, 08:16 AM

Kremlin’s proxy Medvedchuk pushes ‘historic lands’ myth as Russia rejects talks — ISW

Viktor Medvedchuk, an ally of Vladimir Putin and former leader of the outlawed pro-Russian party Opposition Platform – For Life (OPZZh), has openly rejected negotiations, while Russian dictator Putin continues his information operation accusing Ukraine of refusing talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Feb. 5.

6 February 2025, 10:08 AM

Russia anticipates Trump will recognize its territorial claims in Ukraine

The Kremlin views the Trump administration as weak and more susceptible to intimidation, expecting it to recognize Russian territorial claims in Ukraine, according to the Jan. 31 report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

1 February 2025, 12:55 PM

Russia’s economy faces deeper struggles despite Putin’s claims - ISW

The Russian government is running an information campaign to create a false perception of economic stability, despite mounting macroeconomic problems exacerbated by war-related expenses, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Jan. 22.

23 January 2025, 07:58 AM

Russian elites push for war escalation despite heavy losses

Despite reports from Russian outlet Meduza that the Russian elite is allegedly disappointed with the Kremlin’s inability to end the war against Ukraine in 2024, Russia’s security and military factions appear to be pushing for an escalation rather than seeking a negotiated resolution. This conclusion, based on insights published by Meduza on Jan. 9, comes from analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

10 January 2025, 10:55 AM

ISW analysis

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