What Ukraine must do immediately to save its energy system and avoid catastrophe - NV

Ukraine has a brief spring window to achieve the impossible: completely overhauling its shattered energy system before the next heating season.

To protect the energy sector, only two things are needed — protection and energy. This maximally simplified formula will adorn any of Ukraine's numerous energy strategies. Moreover, none of them lived to see even half of its allotted lifespan without being rewritten. And so, for the first time in its history, Ukraine is writing its energy strategy not with ink, but with blood, in real-time, with implementation needed today for today.

"For us, this is a matter of the city's energy security, preventing a humanitarian crisis, and most importantly, our survival," Ivan Kuznetsov, Kharkiv Deputy Mayor, said.

Before next winter, it is necessary to at least partially restore lost generation, build new capacities, provide them with protection, put them into operation, and do so at speeds no one, anywhere, has ever worked at before.

"In order to really have time to prepare for next winter, contracts must be signed in March-April," Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Industry Research Center, suggested.

"And this is one of the biggest challenges."

Another equally significant challenge is the need to develop combined generation using various energy sources with the capability to store it. This is pointed out by Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, co-founder of the Negen company and Ukrenergo Chair in 2020-2024.

"We are losing Soviet coal generation and large combined heat and power plants (CHPs) running on coal and gas," he explained.

"We need to build energy storage systems. These are large industrial batteries that allow you to pump solar energy into them during the daytime peak and shift it to the evening."

In any configuration of the new generation, nuclear power will remain the baseline, serving as the core that has held and will continue to hold the entire system together. In the development of maneuverable generation, the main role belongs to natural gas. Its importance will only grow. And the most valuable and scarce resource is people.

"The key problem is that we do not have enough specialists who can install and carry out work in accordance with licensing conditions," Oleksiy Ryabchyn, Director for International Relations and Partnership Development at Naftogaz of Ukraine, said.

"Because foreign specialists cannot come here, it is forbidden for them."

A new era

In order to understand where we are and where we are going, we must remember where we were. On the eve of the full-scale invasion, the working capacity of Ukraine's entire energy system was at the level of 33.6 GW. Consumption in the country was up to 28 GW.

"The situation was very comfortable, and there were no problems at all," Kharchenko argued.

The problems arose when Russia began deliberately destroying Ukraine's energy sector with missiles, bombs, and UAVs. Thus, at the critical peak of last winter, the power system shrank to 11-12 GW. At the same time, consumption stopped at 17-18 GW. Meaning, the gap of 5-7 GW is the black hole into which the country fell.

"Eight absolute blackouts — this is the record of invincibility that Kharkiv endured," Kuznetsov recalled.

To avoid setting any more records of invincibility, by the next heating season, it is necessary not only to revive the shattered capacities but effectively reinvent the country's energy generation scheme in half a year.

Considering that since January, Ukraine has had access to an interstate cross-border capacity for electricity imports of about 2.45 GW, approximately 3 GW needs to be revived.

As of Kharchenko's estimates, under fabulously favorable conditions, it is possible to install new capacities in Kyiv equivalent to 250 MW before next winter, and under completely lucky circumstances — restore 400 MW of what was damaged at CHPs. This is considering that twice as much — 1.2 GW — was damaged.

"In practice, this will mean that Kyiv, albeit with electricity outages, will get through the next heating season without heat problems," Kharchenko hopes.

This is roughly the result Kharkiv is aiming for, which experiences missile and bomb strikes on CHPs, TPPs, HPPs, and Ukrenergo nodal substations almost daily. "This forces us to accelerate the work on installing cogeneration units, gas generators, turbines, and block-modular boiler houses," Kuznietsov explains the new energy strategy of the war. "The energy island on the territory of the medical complex, which depended specifically on the CHP, was built in two months."

But here is what Pavlo Karas, director of Cherkasyteplokomunenergo, thinks: "We plan to install large electrical energy storage devices, taking into account our forecast that there will be peak power deficits in Ukraine over the next three to five years." And it is the same across all cities and towns in the country.

Whether it is Kyiv or Odesa, Kharkiv or Kryvyi Rih, close to the front or far away, everyone is united by the concept of decentralizing energy generation, which accompanies the boom in gas-piston and gas-turbine stations.

"In parallel with the supply of equipment for thermal power plants, we must build more distributed generation," Maksym Timchenko, DTEK CEO, said.

"Today, this is the most resilient and stable solution for Ukraine."

According to the estimates Kudrytskyi relies on, an additional 500-600 MW can easily be added to the now available decentralized generation capacities that are already operating in the power system at 600-700 MW. It is likely that Kudrytskyi includes the facilities his company is building in this figure.

"We have already put the first gas-piston power plants into operation," he said.

"This year, we expect to be able to attract even more capital to build more capacities, mainly balancing ones, to provide the energy system with the ability to cover consumption peaks."

Literally using his fingers, Kudrytskyi explains this new wartime energy strategy. A network of relatively small power plants and energy storage systems must be created. It will be extremely difficult for the enemy to extinguish it. Because it is one thing to attack 15 large energy facilities, and quite another to attack 500-1,000 small ones.

"Here is the strategic response to the energy terror that the Russians are inflicting on Ukraine," Kudrytskyi emphasized.

Kharchenko is not as much of an optimist, so he does not rule out that the Russians will be ready to launch 400-500 drones that will disperse to 100 decentralized generation facilities and still do their dirty work somewhere.

"Therefore, decentralized generation facilities must be built with protection from the very start," he said.

"At least the fortification of the so-called second level, as Ukrenergo does on its transformers. If the protection is of poor quality, you might as well do nothing at all."

The reality

Here, the beautiful stories end, and ugly real life begins. There is practically no time to build a network of decentralized energy generation before winter, plus restore what was lost, and also erect reliable protection for each of the facilities. There are seven months left until the next heating season.

"If we imagine that money is available to us in March, it means that we will only complete tenders in June, sign the contract in July, and the equipment will arrive in the winter," Kharchenko calculates the plan.

"Installation and connection will take another four to five months. So, in this bureaucratic chain, some stages required by legislation will have to be bypassed. Few are ready for these games with millions in state funds."

"Teplokomunenergo (municipal heating companies) says: we are not ready to take the money," Kharchenko gives an example.

"If you give us money, law enforcement will come to us, and they already don't leave us alone. They are constantly sitting here. Let them just send us the equipment and the contracts for the work directly."

"You just simulated this situation right now," NV noted.

"I didn't simulate it; I'm telling you from real life. Here's an example. A meeting in a decent city. Teplokomunenergo: 1) director, 2) chief engineer, 3) head of the housing and communal services department, 4) deputy mayor. That is, sitting at one table are: 1) three criminal cases, 2) six criminal cases, 3 and 4) two criminal cases each. This has no relation to reality. And it ends with nothing. But it lasts a very long time."

The paralysis of bureaucracy with an imperfect reputation is a strong brake on any initiatives. When trust is destroyed, everything becomes more difficult.

"We cannot allow such scandalous and absolutely inexplicable things as the blocking of competitions for new generation, which the Ministry of Energy headed by Herman Halushchenko [now under investigation and suspected of money laundering and participating in a criminal organization - ed.] did last year," Kudrytskyi emphasized.

This knot should have been cut before it becomes a noose on the restoration of the Ukrainian energy sector. The situation now seems like a stalemate, but it is not.

"Because there are many countries that say they want to help Ukraine recover from these attacks, including Kyiv," Kharchenko said.

"I talk to diplomats; they all ask: how can we help you?"

Calculations like these cannot deter Pavlo Karas from Cherkasy. At a meeting of the Energy Club, where the topic The Future of Thermal Power Engineering: Between Decentralization and Reality was discussed, he emphasized that distributed generation is a profitable type of activity.

"I do not understand colleagues who do not connect cogeneration machines," he argued.

"If you are not able to connect a cogeneration machine in, say, four or five months, then you should not be the head of this enterprise."

Another challenge is gas, which is becoming the base energy carrier in the new power generation system. We need more and more of it now, while we are extracting less and less.

Volodymyr Hnoiovyi, until recently the head of the Association of Energy Resource Suppliers, calculated that at the peak of production, the new installations will burn up to 5 million cubic meters of gas daily; per year, this is slightly less than 2 billion cubic meters — 10% of all Ukrainian production.

"And therefore, I repeat again: when developing and implementing the decentralization program, it is necessary to provide resources," he emphasized.

Recently, Naftogaz signed an agreement on regular supplies of American LNG (liquefied natural gas) to Ukraine via Greece and Poland. Both countries are building LNG infrastructure to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas. In addition, gas from Norway and via Turkey from Azerbaijan will enter Ukraine by pipeline. There is only one restriction in all this internationalism — the gas must not be of Russian origin. Apart from Ukrainian politics, this aligns with the American strategy and the European Union's tactics to completely squeeze the Russians out of this large gas market. For a long time. [Forever.]

Furthermore, Naftogaz is negotiating with a number of global gas-producing companies to supply extraction equipment, even if used, but in good condition. Ryabchyn cites a recent example of one of the giants of the extractive industry, which volunteered to transport compressors to Ukraine from its non-operating fields to boost Ukrainian production.

"The problem is that I cannot talk about this until it happens," Ryabchyn explained.

"Because the moment you talk about it without having pumped the gas into storage, a missile hits you tomorrow."

Wintering through the summer

Next winter is relatively far away. But summer will arrive in three months, and then, due to the heat, consumption will rise again. This means that before next winter, Ukrainians still need to somehow "winter through" this summer.

After the spring floods end and, accordingly, the water levels of the Dnipro and Dniester drop, electricity production at hydroelectric power plants will decrease. As a rule, this happens every year in Ukraine closer to June. Nuclear power plants will be in the most active phase of nuclear fuel reloading and undergoing preventive maintenance. And it is precisely then, given intensive Russian attacks, that problems similar to those in the summer of 2024 may arise.

At the same time, from March to October, the power of solar generation is added to the system. It plays a significant role in the overall balance of electricity production. The total share of green generation — wind and solar — over the year is approximately 10%. But the share of solar generation can cover up to 25% of the country's consumption in certain hours.

Wind energy also played an important role before the Russian invasion. But now, a significant portion of its capacities remains in the temporarily occupied territories. And now wind energy production is only just recovering. But it is doing so effectively.

"A wind farm with a capacity of 500 MW has already been commissioned in Ukraine; the last turbine is planned to be installed in May," Timchenko gave an example.

"We are also forming a coalition of investors for a new project — a 650 MW wind farm, which will become the largest onshore wind farm in Europe. The site is already prepared."

And lastly, the most important thing.

"Ukraine is the obvious leader in Eastern and Central Europe in nuclear energy," Kharchenko said.

"I'm talking about the engineers who showed that a nuclear power plant can be dropped to zero, then restarted within a week, and nothing bad will happen. Ukraine has proven that our engineers are cool in nuclear energy. Now we need to convert this into real leadership. Because all the countries of Eastern Europe want nuclear energy. And all the countries of Eastern Europe do not know how to handle it."

That will be tomorrow. But Kudrytskyi describes today's task as follows: "One of the government's main KPIs [key performance indicators] should be to bring as many capacities into operation as possible during the spring, summer, and autumn. So that next winter we are better equipped with decentralized generation."