The operation appears to be part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy aimed at undermining Europe’s security.
The Kremlin deployed around 20 drones into Polish airspace — three times more than the total number recorded over Poland since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“The sheer scale of the incursion suggests it was no accident,” the analysts concluded.
ISW believes Moscow intentionally violated Polish airspace to evaluate NATO’s command structure, coordination, and political resolve — particularly during a sensitive time for public support of Ukraine within Poland.
“Russia is gradually expanding its hybrid war campaign against Europe, and the drone intrusion into Poland is part of this broader effort,” the analysts wrote.
The NATO command center confirmed that this was the first time Allied aircraft engaged potential airborne threats within NATO airspace.
The think tank stressed that Russia is simultaneously preparing for a possible future war with the West — by militarizing its youth, building military infrastructure along its western borders, spreading propaganda, and conditioning its society for escalation.
“Probing NATO’s technical capabilities and political resolve is likely one component of this multipronged campaign," ISW warned.
"Russia appears increasingly willing to test the limits of escalation.”
Poland’s weapons hub possibly targeted
ISW also suggested that one of the attack’s key objectives may have been to disrupt Western arms supplies to Ukraine.
Several drones reportedly flew in the direction of Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, Poland’s main logistics hub for transporting weapons and equipment into Ukraine. Moscow may have hoped to frighten Polish leaders into scaling back support for Ukraine out of fear of future strikes.
NATO and Poland respond
On Sept. 10, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, many originating from Belarus. Four drones were shot down. Polish officials also reported finding debris from an unidentified missile.
One drone crashed into a residential building in the village of Wierniki-Wola in Lublin Voivodeship, causing structural damage but no casualties.
In response, Warsaw convened an emergency government meeting, strengthened national security measures, and requested NATO invoke Article 4, which calls for immediate consultations among allies in the event of a perceived threat.
NATO has since activated Article 4 consultations, though the alliance stopped short of labeling the drone incursion as an “attack”, while acknowledging it was deliberate.